TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:27 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how many times a quarterback successfully connects with his receivers during a football game. The outcome depends on whether the player meets specific benchmarks for completed passes. The markets settle based on official game statistics once the game concludes.
All markets resolve based on the number of passing completions recorded by Josh Allen in the Baltimore vs Buffalo Professional Football game originally scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. If Josh Allen is active for the game but never takes a snap, all markets settle to the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once Allen takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the markets settle based strictly on the total number of passing completions he records during the game. Each market has a different threshold for resolution (16+, 21+, or 26+ completions), with the market resolving to 'Yes' if Allen meets or exceeds that threshold. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with or connected to the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what’s immediately available in traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks set initial odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. Therefore, you might find differences between the implied probabilities on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast outcomes as event time approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing completion totals for the game. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the potential passing completions. The current market price represents the collective prediction of all participants on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing completion statistics for the Baltimore versus Buffalo game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics reported by the NFL, and the market will settle to the contract corresponding to the actual number of passing completions achieved during the game. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to impact the passing game, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also shift prices. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as any late-breaking news related to player availability, could all contribute to fluctuations in this market before Nov 2, 2026.