TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether specified athletes or units surpass predetermined fantasy point thresholds based on a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense/special teams units during the full duration of the Baltimore vs Buffalo Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, including any overtime periods. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for various statistical categories including passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions. Each market has a specific threshold that must be exceeded for a 'Yes' resolution. If a player does not participate in the game or is not assigned a fantasy-point value by Sleeper, they are automatically considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration are used for resolution, with no adjustments allowed for post-expiration corrections or rounding. All markets are independent, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others, and each is evaluated solely on the performance of the designated participant against their respective threshold.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will bid up the price of contracts representing that outcome, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time estimate of probabilities.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals for the players involved will be used to determine the winning contracts. Official fantasy football scoring rules will be applied to calculate the totals. The resolution will be based on established and publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Player injuries are a major catalyst, as they directly impact expected performance. News regarding player matchups, coaching strategies, or changes in team dynamics can also shift market sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions during the game could affect player statistics. Finally, any significant updates from reliable fantasy football analysts or reports on player health and preparation could lead to price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on changing probabilities.