TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Baltimore or Buffalo specifically within the final quarter of their scheduled game on Nov 1, 2026. Outcomes depend entirely on how many points each team scores in that single quarter, excluding any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Baltimore and Buffalo during the 4th quarter of play, with overtime points excluded from consideration. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets exist for Buffalo winning by margins exceeding 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, as well as for Baltimore winning by margins exceeding 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified team's victory margin in that quarter strictly surpasses the stated threshold. No points scored before or after the 4th quarter affect any outcome, and all determinations are final once the game concludes.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often providing a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly as the event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perceptions, while this market aggregates the views of informed traders. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes move faster to incorporate breaking news, while this market relies on traders actively adjusting their positions. It’s important to compare both to get a comprehensive view of expectations for the game.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread in the fourth quarter of the Baltimore versus Buffalo game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics reported by a trusted sports data provider. The contract will pay out $1.00 to the winning side, representing the accurate prediction of the 4th quarter spread, and $0.00 to the losing side. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Baltimore or Buffalo teams would likely cause a shift in the spread. Late-breaking weather reports, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing game, could also influence trading activity. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected lineup adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis, could also affect the price of contracts in this market.