TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates various thresholds for the total points scored by both Baltimore and Buffalo in the first quarter of their upcoming football game. Each threshold represents a different level of scoring intensity, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of higher or lower scoring bursts within the opening quarter.
All markets resolve based on the combined points scored by both teams during the first quarter of the designated game. Each market has a specific threshold, and if the total points exceed that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes.' Only points scored in the first quarter count, and all markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately. The markets cover a range of scoring levels, from modest to high, providing multiple opportunities to predict different scoring outcomes within the first quarter. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the total first quarter points will be over or under a certain threshold. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a stronger belief in that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, and can change rapidly as new information becomes available or as traders adjust their positions.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point total scored in the first quarter of the Baltimore versus Buffalo game will be used to determine whether the ‘over’ or ‘under’ contracts will pay out. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the source for this determination, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process. Traders should monitor the game closely as the first quarter unfolds to understand the potential outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries for either the Baltimore or Buffalo teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting passing or scoring, could also shift trader sentiment. Even public perception, fueled by pre-game analysis or social media discussions, can play a role. As kickoff approaches, any unexpected developments will be quickly reflected in the price of contracts within this market.