TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks touchdown performances by various players in an upcoming professional football game. It examines whether specific players achieve certain touchdown milestones during the match, including both offensive players and defensive units.
All markets resolve based on whether specified players score the required number of touchdowns during the full game, including overtime. Each contract is designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in the first half but not afterward, the contract resolves to the fair price unless the touchdown requirement is met. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. Passing touchdowns do not count toward the passer's total, and team defense/special-teams selections settle on actual touchdowns without applying the player participation exception. The event encompasses all touchdowns scored during the game, with no additional conditions beyond the specified thresholds for each player or unit.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small group of experts, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individual traders. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may initially focus on team statistics and expert analysis, this market can quickly incorporate a wider range of factors, including injury reports or even weather forecasts, leading to potentially different probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on their own analysis and expectations, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. The more contracts purchased for a specific outcome, the higher its price will climb, reflecting increased confidence in that result. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various touchdown totals.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final touchdown count from the Baltimore versus Atlanta game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome that matches the actual number of touchdowns scored in the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Baltimore or Atlanta offense would likely cause substantial shifts in the price of contracts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced leading up to the game could also move the market. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media trends, could influence traders’ expectations and alter the price of contracts in this market.