TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Derrick Henry or Zay Flowers will score touchdowns in the Baltimore Ravens versus Atlanta Falcons professional football game. Currently, the probability of Derrick Henry scoring 2+ touchdowns is 10.0%, while Zay Flowers scoring 1+ touchdowns is at 8.0%. The market will resolve based on whether the Baltimore Ravens D/ST scores at least 1+ touchdowns in the game originally scheduled for October 11, 2026, as determined by the official game results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market resolves the day after the originally scheduled date of October 11, 2026, meaning the outcome will be determined by the results of the game played on that date.
All markets resolve based on whether designated players or defensive units score at least one touchdown during the specified NFL game. If a participant is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair price determined before the game starts. Once a participant takes a snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined by whether they score a touchdown during the game. These rules ensure fair resolution even when players are on the field but do not participate in offensive drives.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective predictions of traders, aims to reflect the true probability of events unfolding. While initial odds may align, differences often emerge as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to impactful news or late-breaking developments than sportsbooks, offering a potentially more efficient price discovery process.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and express their views, the prices adjust dynamically, converging toward what the collective wisdom suggests is the most likely scenario. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price movements are solely determined by supply and demand within Kalshi, based on the expectations of its users.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the number of touchdowns scored by each team during the official game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the results. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events based on the verified outcome of the Baltimore versus Atlanta game.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Baltimore Ravens or the Atlanta Falcons would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions affecting the passing game, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-week reports on team strategies or defensive matchups could cause traders to reassess the probabilities, leading to price fluctuations. Unexpected shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in betting trends, could also contribute to market movement.