TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Baltimore and Atlanta. Participants can bet on whether a designated player will meet certain statistical thresholds. The outcome depends entirely on the actual in-game performance of these players.
This event features two parallel scalar markets resolving based on rushing yardage totals for two players in the same football game. Each market operates independently, with Yes contracts paying proportionally to the player's actual rushing yards at a fixed rate per yard up to a maximum payout of $1.00. No contracts receive the remainder of the $1.00 stake not paid to Yes contracts. Payouts are linearly proportional to yardage totals, with specific caps and constraints applied uniformly across both markets. The structure ensures that total payouts for any position across both markets cannot exceed the initial stake investment, maintaining balanced risk-reward dynamics for participants betting on either player's performance.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. Polls and analysts’ predictions often align more closely with the collective view expressed in this market than with initial sportsbook lines, though sportsbooks will adjust their odds closer to game time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, injury reports, and shifts in public sentiment. The market efficiently incorporates this information, providing a real-time assessment of potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL following the completion of the game between Baltimore and Atlanta. The market will determine which rushing yard ladder outcome was achieved based on the final, official statistics, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to contract holders.
Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either the Baltimore or Atlanta teams would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if heavy rain or snow is predicted, could also influence expectations for rushing yardage. Unexpected coaching decisions about play-calling strategy, or even late-breaking reports about player matchups and defensive schemes, could all lead to movement. This market will resolve around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting.