TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:31 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how often specific players get the ball during an upcoming football game between Baltimore and Atlanta. The outcomes depend on whether designated players receive a minimum number of rushing attempts. Markets settle based on official game statistics, with special rules for players who are active but do not participate in any plays.
All markets resolve based on the number of rushing attempts recorded by specified players during the Baltimore vs Atlanta Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. For each market, if the named player records the specified minimum number of rushing attempts or more, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if a player is listed as active for the game but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a player takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual number of rushing attempts recorded during the game. This consistent framework ensures that markets reflect real-game performance while accounting for pre-game uncertainty regarding player participation.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own probabilities. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price of contracts representing that outcome will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts leading up to the game. Examining these differences can be insightful for both bettors and market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different ranges of total rushing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of the actual rushing attempts falling within that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The goal is for the market price to converge toward the true probability of each outcome, providing a forecast based on the aggregated knowledge of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official total rushing attempts from the Baltimore versus Atlanta game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally will be sourced from official league statistics and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders will be able to see the final result and any payouts associated with their positions after the official data is released. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a significant catalyst, as would any changes to the expected game script. For example, if the weather forecast calls for heavy rain, it could lead to a greater emphasis on the running game, potentially increasing the predicted rushing attempts. News regarding offensive line changes or coaching adjustments could also impact the market. Finally, any late-breaking information about team strategies or player availability could cause substantial price movements.