TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The upcoming football game between Baltimore and Atlanta will feature key players whose performance metrics are tracked for betting purposes. Each player's statistical contributions will determine payouts for participants based on predefined rates per reception.
Contracts pay based on receptions recorded by specified players during the game. Yes payouts are $0.05 per reception, capped at $1.00, with No payouts being $1.00 minus the Yes payout. The market resolves to Yes if any receptions occur, with payouts proportional to reception counts up to a maximum of 20 receptions per player. All payouts are constrained and rounded as specified.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs. Often, you’ll see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information, such as injury reports or coaching changes, than sportsbooks. Discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of expertise among participants and the incentive structure of each venue. It's common to see this market offer a different perspective on the likely outcome than traditional betting options.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, whether a player will exceed a specific number of receptions. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the game. The market depth shows the volume of buy and sell orders at different price points, indicating the strength of conviction behind various predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for each player will be sourced from official NFL data and used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the actual number of receptions achieved by each player during the specified game. Any disputes regarding the official statistics will be resolved based on the official NFL records as the final authority. The resolution process ensures a transparent and accurate determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Injury reports are a major catalyst, as the absence of a key receiver or a change in quarterback could drastically alter a player’s expected reception total. Weather conditions, particularly if there’s heavy rain or strong winds, can also influence passing games and affect receiver performance. Unexpected coaching decisions, such as a shift in offensive strategy, could lead to changes in target distribution. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could shift expectations and move the market.