TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming football game between Baltimore and Atlanta. Payouts for Yes contracts increase progressively with each additional reception, following a cubic scaling formula, while No contracts pay the difference from $1.00.
Each market resolves based on the official number of receptions achieved by the designated player in the Baltimore vs Atlanta Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Yes contracts pay according to a predefined schedule that increases with each reception, calculated using the formula Payout = floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where s represents the official receptions. The maximum Yes payout is $1.00, and No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. All markets are scalar, meaning payouts depend solely on the exact count of receptions, with identical payout structures across all player-specific markets. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion differs from expert analysis. While sportsbooks may initially favor one team, the prediction market can shift based on new information or perceived value, potentially offering a different read on the likely outcome of the game and the performance of individual players.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final number of receptions. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher reception total, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches. Traders are constantly evaluating and re-evaluating their positions, leading to a fluid and responsive market.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of receptions achieved by the players in the specified game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see their contracts settled based on this verified data, reflecting the accuracy of their predictions.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends would be significant, as they directly impact the potential for receptions. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect passing games and, consequently, reception totals. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding play-calling strategies or player usage could also shift market sentiment. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in trader expectations and price movements.