TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 12:04 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the receiving yards accumulated by specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Baltimore and Atlanta. Participants bet on whether each player's yardage will meet a certain threshold, with payouts scaling linearly based on actual performance.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where Yes contracts pay out $0.0025 for every receiving yard a designated player records during the specified game, capped at $1.00 for up to 400 yards. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring total returns sum to $1.00 per contract regardless of outcome. Payouts are proportional to contract positions, meaning holders of larger positions receive correspondingly larger shares of the total payout. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, Yes contracts pay $0.20 and No contracts pay $0.80; at 200 yards, both sides pay $0.50. Zero yards result in a full $1.00 payout to No contracts and nothing to Yes contracts. All markets resolve based solely on official game statistics, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming any affiliation with the NFL.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on their own analysis, while this market allows a broader range of participants to weigh in and adjust prices based on new information and evolving perspectives. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge, especially as new developments occur leading up to the game. However, as the event approaches, the prices in this market often converge towards what is considered the true probability of each outcome, as indicated by informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage thresholds for players in the game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability that the player will exceed that yardage total. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of expectations. The market depth shows the available buy and sell orders at different price levels, giving traders insight into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the Baltimore versus Atlanta game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will be used to determine whether each contract’s yardage threshold was exceeded. The resolution will reflect the final, official numbers released by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final results.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key receivers on either team would have a substantial impact, potentially shifting expectations for yardage totals. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if inclement weather is predicted, could also affect passing game strategies and, consequently, receiving yardage. Furthermore, updates on defensive matchups and coaching strategies could lead to adjustments in market prices. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding player availability or performance expectations could trigger significant movement in this market.