TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets allow participants to speculate on the receiving yard performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Baltimore and Atlanta. Payouts increase progressively with higher yardage achieved by each named player, offering a tiered reward structure based on statistical outcomes.
Each market resolves based on the official receiving yards accumulated by the specified player during the Baltimore vs Atlanta Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Yes contracts pay out according to a tiered schedule where each 10-yard increment within defined ranges corresponds to a specific monetary return, capped at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. The payout formula uses a cubic scaling function of the yards achieved, truncated to a maximum of 200 yards for calculation purposes. No contracts receive the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout amount. If a player records negative receiving yards, Yes contracts pay $0.00. All markets resolve to Yes following payout determination, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a particular receiving yardage total is more or less likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price of contracts in this market will adjust accordingly. This can sometimes lead to prediction markets being more accurate than sportsbooks, especially when there is strong public sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual receiving yards will fall within the range represented by that contract. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the potential outcome. The market’s price discovery process allows for a collective prediction based on the aggregated knowledge and beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the Baltimore versus Atlanta game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for the relevant players will be used to determine which contracts pay out and at what value. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome for all traders participating in this market. It’s important to monitor official sources as the game concludes to understand the final result.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Baltimore or Atlanta teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or player matchups could cause traders to reassess their predictions. Even general sentiment shifts, driven by expert analysis or social media buzz, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.