TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players from both teams achieve a reception longer than a set yardage threshold in an upcoming football game. Each market focuses on a different player and their performance metric. The outcome depends on game-day play and adherence to defined conditions.
The event evaluates multiple individual player markets to determine if each specified athlete records a longest reception exceeding their respective yardage thresholds during the Baltimore vs Atlanta Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. For each market, if the named player achieves a reception longer than the stated threshold, that specific market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule states that if a player is active for the team but does not take a snap at any point during the game, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by penalty—the market outcome is settled definitively based on the longest reception actually recorded for that player during the game. These provisions ensure clarity and fairness in resolving each market under varying game conditions, such as injury or limited playing time, while emphasizing actual in-game performance once a player participates.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and perspectives from many traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi may converge or diverge from those offered by sportsbooks. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities than traditional betting markets, especially closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each player having the longest reception. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can set their own bid and ask prices, and the market dynamically adjusts as new information emerges and trading volume fluctuates. The goal is to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on discrepancies between your beliefs and the market’s consensus.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception during the game, as officially recorded by the league, will determine the winning contract. The official game statistics will serve as the final data point for determining the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand when and how this market will be settled.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key receivers, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also influence the game plan and favor different players. Unexpected coaching decisions or adjustments to offensive strategies could also move this market. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to traders reassessing the probabilities and adjusting their positions.