TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific quarterback in an upcoming football game between Baltimore and Atlanta. It focuses on how many times the quarterback throws interceptions during the match. The outcome depends on whether the quarterback exceeds certain thresholds of intercepted passes.
The event evaluates Michael Penix Jr.'s passing interceptions in the Baltimore vs Atlanta Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+). If Penix Jr. records the specified number of interceptions or more, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If Penix Jr. is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. Once he takes at least one snap—even if nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on the actual interceptions recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all three markets, ensuring consistent evaluation criteria for each threshold.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe an outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of that outcome will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different numbers of passing interceptions. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. Traders are essentially betting on their forecast of the final interception count, and their collective actions determine the market price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability that the actual number of interceptions will fall at or below the contract's value, making it a dynamic representation of market expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing interceptions thrown during the game between Baltimore and Atlanta will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting a number of interceptions at or below the actual total will settle positively, while those predicting a higher number will settle negatively. The resolution will be based on official game statistics.
Several factors could influence this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ recent performance, injury reports affecting key players (especially the quarterbacks and receiving corps), or even weather conditions expected during the game could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in public perception, driven by expert analysis or social media discussion, can also impact the price. Unexpected announcements about defensive strategies employed by either team could also cause significant movement in this market.