TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 8:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which player will score the first touchdown in the Baltimore versus Atlanta professional football game. Currently, Bijan Robinson: 1st Touchdown is trading at 24.0% probability on Kalshi, while Kyle Pitts Sr.: 1st Touchdown is at 13.0%. The market will resolve based on whether a player scores the first touchdown in the game, as determined by the official game results. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the Baltimore versus Atlanta game on October 11, 2026, as the first scoring play will determine the outcome of this market, with resolution occurring by October 12, 2026.
The event resolves based on which participant—BAL Ravens D/ST, ATL Falcons D/ST, or No Touchdown—scores the first touchdown in the designated game. If either defensive unit scores the first touchdown, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no touchdowns are scored by either team throughout the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. Special settlement rules apply if a team is active but does not take a snap: markets settle to the fair market price before kickoff. Once a snap occurs, settlement depends on actual touchdowns scored, even if plays are nullified by penalties. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit for the house, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess probabilities. This often leads to prediction market prices being more efficient and reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. However, sportsbook odds can be influenced by public betting patterns and promotional offers, creating discrepancies. It's common to see differences in implied probabilities when comparing this market to traditional sports betting lines, particularly closer to game time.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which player officially scores the first touchdown in the game between the Baltimore and Atlanta teams. Any scoring plays will be verified against official game statistics and play-by-play data. The market will settle to 100 for the correct player and 0 for all others, reflecting the binary nature of the event. The final result will be publicly available on Kalshi following the game's conclusion.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Late-breaking news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence scoring expectations and shift probabilities. Pre-game reports on defensive matchups and offensive strategies could also play a role. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment or large trading volume on Kalshi could indicate a change in perceived probabilities, potentially driving price movements in this market.