TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026
polymarket
kalshi

Who will be in the Ballon d'Or Top 5?

Volume:
$1,125,985

Lionel Messi

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 9:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Lionel Messi

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$81,314
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Lionel Messi

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$76,305
N/A
N/A
$39,866
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Rodri

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$52,581
N/A
N/A
$30,708
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Rodri

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$47,959
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
polymarket

Kylian Mbappé

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$46,872
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Kylian Mbappé

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,272
N/A
N/A
$12,396
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lamine Yamal

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,623
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Lamine Yamal

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,733
N/A
N/A
$10,309
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Harry Kane

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,770
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Harry Kane

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,832
N/A
N/A
$7,640
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Michael Olise

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$169,298
N/A
N/A
$105,138
Settled
No
polymarket

Michael Olise

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,479
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Ousmane Dembélé

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62,236
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Ousmane Dembélé

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,187
N/A
N/A
$27,416
Settled
No
polymarket

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,694
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,206
N/A
N/A
$30,089
Settled
No
polymarket

Fabian Ruiz

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,905
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Fabián Ruiz

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,834
N/A
N/A
$19,438
Settled
No
kalshi

Erling Haaland

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42,352
N/A
N/A
$30,298
Settled
No
polymarket

Erling Haaland

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,450
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Jude Bellingham

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,098
N/A
N/A
$25,294
Settled
No
polymarket

Jude Bellingham

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,828
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Vitinha

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Vitinha

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,410
N/A
N/A
$2,210
Settled
No
polymarket

Declan Rice

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,542
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Lionel Messi finishing in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or award. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. This prediction group forecasts which soccer players will finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or, as determined by the official award presented at https://www.ballondor.com/. Keep an eye on the official Ballon d'Or shortlist, typically released in November 2026, as a key signal for the market’s resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Redundant markets exist across Polymarket and Kalshi with identical resolution criteria, leading to potential fragmentation of trading volume.Hero tip: Focus on the platform with the most liquidity and favorable fees, as the resolution criteria are identical. Avoid splitting your positions across platforms unnecessarily.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the player finishes in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or, 'No' if the award is canceled or not published by December 31, 2026. Primary source is the official Ballon d'Or announcement.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the player is ranked top 5 on the official final Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026. Resolves based on the official Ballon d'Or ranking.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve "No." If more than 5 players tie for the top 5 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official top 5 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final five places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Jude Bellingham is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pau Cubarsí is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marc Cucurella is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ousmane Dembélé is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luis Díaz is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bruno Fernandes is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gabriel is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erling Haaland is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Achraf Hakimi is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harry Kane is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lamine Yamal is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sadio Mané is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marquinhos is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lautaro Martínez is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kylian Mbappé is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nuno Mendes is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lionel Messi is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If João Neves is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Olise is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Willian Pacho is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Julián Quiñones is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Declan Rice is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rodri is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fabián Ruiz is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If William Saliba is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ferran Torres is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dayot Upamecano is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vinícius Júnior is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vitinha is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the Ballon d'Or race, specifically which players will finish in the top 5. It tracks the consensus view of traders across both platforms, currently showing a combined volume of $1,125,985 and 24-hour volume of $731,507. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of market sentiment regarding potential winners and contenders. The dashboard provides a unique perspective on the likelihood of different players achieving a top-five finish, beyond traditional sports analysis.