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417,059

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PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
polymarket
kalshi

Who will be in the Ballon d'Or Top 3?

Volume:
$1,833,359

Harry Kane

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 8:54 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Harry Kane

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$246,704
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Harry Kane

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$81,711
N/A
N/A
$58,449
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kylian Mbappé

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$194,224
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Kylian Mbappé

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$109,544
N/A
N/A
$59,541
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lamine Yamal

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$179,512
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Lamine Yamal

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$86,993
N/A
N/A
$54,606
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lionel Messi

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$202,310
N/A
N/A
$130,782
Settled
No
polymarket

Lionel Messi

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$147,623
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Ousmane Dembélé

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$89,846
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Ousmane Dembélé

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,216
N/A
N/A
$24,370
Settled
No
polymarket

Michael Olise

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$88,330
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Michael Olise

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40,448
N/A
N/A
$31,019
Settled
No
polymarket

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$70,774
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,489
N/A
N/A
$12,609
Settled
No
polymarket

Rodri

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,573
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Rodri

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,241
N/A
N/A
$17,476
Settled
No
polymarket

Fabian Ruiz

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Fabián Ruiz

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,324
N/A
N/A
$14,055
Settled
No
polymarket

Pau Cubarsi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,878
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Pau Cubarsí

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,210
N/A
N/A
$863
Settled
No
polymarket

Erling Haaland

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,962
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Erling Haaland

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,748
N/A
N/A
$3,944
Settled
No
polymarket

Desire Doue

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jude Bellingham

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,444
N/A
N/A
$4,275
Settled
No
polymarket

Jude Bellingham

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,042
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
Total markets: 25 of 61

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Harry Kane finishing in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or award, which recognizes the best male football player in the world. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on the official results published at https://www.ballondor.com/. Keep an eye on the official Ballon d'Or shortlist, expected around October 2026, as a key indicator of Kane’s chances.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Both Polymarket and Kalshi offer markets on the same players, leading to redundancy. The resolution logic is functionally identical but expressed with slightly different wording.Hero tip: Consider focusing on players listed on only one platform to diversify your portfolio. The core resolution criteria are consistent, so the risk is limited to market redundancy.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if a player finishes in the top 3. Includes a cancellation clause if the Ballon d'Or is not published by a specific date. "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if [player] officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if a player is ranked in the top 3. "If [player] is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 3 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve "No." If more than 3 players tie for the top 3 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official top 3 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final three places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Jude Bellingham is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pau Cubarsí is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marc Cucurella is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ousmane Dembélé is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luis Díaz is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bruno Fernandes is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gabriel is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Erling Haaland is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Achraf Hakimi is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harry Kane is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lamine Yamal is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sadio Mané is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marquinhos is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lautaro Martínez is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kylian Mbappé is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nuno Mendes is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lionel Messi is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If João Neves is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Olise is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Willian Pacho is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Julián Quiñones is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Declan Rice is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rodri is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Fabián Ruiz is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If William Saliba is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ferran Torres is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dayot Upamecano is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vinícius Júnior is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vitinha is ranked top 3 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the Ballon d'Or race from multiple platforms, offering a consensus view of who is likely to finish in the top three. Currently, the total volume across all platforms is $1,833,359, with $880,782 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket and Kalshi are the primary sources for this data, allowing you to compare perspectives and see how the probabilities shift as new information emerges. The dashboard provides a comprehensive look at the evolving expectations surrounding this prestigious football award.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major injuries to key contenders, exceptional performances in the Champions League or domestic leagues, and unexpected shifts in team dynamics are all potential catalysts. Strong showings in international tournaments leading up to the award ceremony will also heavily influence trader sentiment. Any news regarding player form, transfers, or even media narratives could cause substantial price movements in this market as traders adjust their predictions based on new information.