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Ballon d'Or Top 2 Finish 2026
polymarket

Who will finish in the Ballon d'Or Top 2?

Volume:
$116,504

Kylian Mbappé

 - Polymarket

Kylian Mbappé - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 9:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Kylian Mbappé

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
polymarket

Harry Kane

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,118
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
polymarket

Lamine Yamal

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,718
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Lionel Messi

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Bruno Fernandes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,986
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Willian Pacho

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,678
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Gabriel Magalhães

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,559
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Rodri

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,949
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Lautaro Martinez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,925
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Ousmane Dembélé

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,443
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Michael Olise

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,255
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Jude Bellingham

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,919
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,219
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Vitinha

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,057
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Pau Cubarsi

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$831
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Nuno Mendes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$776
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Vinícius Júnior

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$764
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Marc Cucurella

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$703
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Sadio Mané

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$609
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Julián Quiñones

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$586
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Declan Rice

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$573
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Fabian Ruiz

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$550
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Luis Diaz

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$550
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Achraf Hakimi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

João Neves

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$478
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 2 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 2 players tie for the top 2 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 2 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final two places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 2 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 2 players tie for the top 2 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 2 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final two places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Ballon d'Or race tracks the current implied probabilities for each potential winner, reflecting the collective predictions of traders. It also displays the total volume traded on this market, currently at $116,504, and the 24-hour volume, which is $42,652. You can also view a price history chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where the smart money is going in this exciting competition, offering insight into who is favored to claim the prestigious award.

Generally, prediction markets like Polymarket often provide different odds than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of informed traders. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when there’s significant public interest or disagreement about a player's chances. If a player is heavily favored by the public, sportsbook odds might be shorter than those found here, and vice versa. It's common to see prediction markets offer more accurate forecasts, especially when a large volume of trading occurs.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. As more shares are traded, the price of each share adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. For example, a share priced at 25 means there’s a 25% chance of that outcome being the correct one, according to the traders on Polymarket.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official winner of the Ballon d'Or award, as announced by France Football, will determine the resolution. The market will settle to 100% for the winning player and 0% for all others. Resolution will be based on the official announcement, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result for all traders participating in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact the odds in this market. Major injuries to key contenders, exceptional performances in league play or the Champions League, and strong showings in international tournaments are all likely to shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets or the emergence of a dark horse candidate could also cause substantial movement. Any news regarding player form, team success, or media endorsements could influence trading activity and, consequently, the prices of shares in this market. Keep an eye on these developments as we approach Jan 1, 2027.