TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Ballon d'Or 2026: 4th Place
polymarket

Who will finish 4th in Ballon d'Or 2026?

Volume:
$100,100

Rodri

 - Polymarket

Rodri - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 9:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Rodri

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$42,488
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
polymarket

Kylian Mbappé

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Lionel Messi

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,185
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,046
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Michael Olise

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,095
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Ousmane Dembélé

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,820
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Lamine Yamal

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Fabian Ruiz

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Erling Haaland

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Harry Kane

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Jude Bellingham

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$182
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Vinícius Júnior

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

William Saliba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Pau Cubarsi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Achraf Hakimi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Bruno Fernandes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Luis Diaz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Marc Cucurella

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Gabriel Magalhães

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Sadio Mané

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Nuno Mendes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

João Neves

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Marquinhos

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Lautaro Martinez

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Julián Quiñones

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4w 1d
No
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 4th place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 4th place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 4th place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 4th place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Ballon d'Or 2026 market tracks the current odds for various players to finish in 4th place. You can view the price history, which shows how the probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour volume, indicating how much trading activity has occurred recently. Currently, the total volume for this market is $100,100 and the 24-hour volume is $61,576. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to the Ballon d'Or award.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines based on expert analysis and public perception, incorporating a margin for profit. This market, however, is driven by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. While sportsbooks may favor established stars, this market could highlight undervalued players or emerging talents. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, risk assessment, and the dynamic nature of prediction market pricing.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official Ballon d'Or 2026 rankings are released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The player officially placed 4th in the Ballon d'Or voting will determine the winning outcome for this market. The final rankings will be sourced from the official Ballon d'Or ceremony and associated publications, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process. Traders should monitor news sources leading up to the award announcement for any potential updates or changes.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Player performance in major leagues and international competitions, particularly during the 2025-2026 season, will be a key driver. Injuries to key contenders could also dramatically shift the odds. Unexpected transfers or changes in team dynamics could also impact a player's perceived chances. Major tournament results, such as the World Cup or European Championships, will likely cause substantial price movements. Any news regarding a player's form, fitness, or team situation should be closely monitored as potential catalysts.