TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
UMass wins by over 2.5 points
- Kalshi
UMass wins by over 2.5 points - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Time left: 01d:23h:06m
$
This set of markets tracks the point differential outcome of a college football game between Ball St. and UMass, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, enabling detailed analysis of potential game results.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the Ball St. vs UMass college football game scheduled for November 4, 2026. If UMass wins by a margin exceeding the specified threshold in any 'UMass wins by over X points' market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, if Ball St. wins by a margin exceeding the threshold in any 'Ball St. wins by over X points' market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these contingency conditions.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the game. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct. Analyzing the difference can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Ball St. vs UMass game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay or receive for a contract, effectively representing a forecast of the final point spread. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on market sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the Ball St. vs UMass game, as determined by official sports data sources, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the final spread will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, based on the actual results of the game.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Ball St. or UMass teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game’s conditions, could also affect trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators could also play a role in shifting market prices.