TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 3:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory for Northwestern in their upcoming college football game against Ball St. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively Northwestern might win.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the Ball St. vs Northwestern college football game scheduled for Oct 10, 2026. For each market, if Northwestern's victory exceeds the specified point threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. If the game does not start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these contingency conditions.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can often be more accurate than initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to attract balanced betting and build in a profit margin, while this market allows participants to freely express their beliefs about the probability of different outcomes. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and widely publicized, providing a useful benchmark for comparison. Discrepancies between this market and sportsbook lines can present potential arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring in the actual game. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts dynamically, providing a real-time indication of expectations. The market depth, reflected in the bid-ask spread, indicates the level of agreement among traders.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Ball St. vs Northwestern game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect spread will forfeit their investment. The market’s resolution is independent of any pre-game predictions or analyses.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any significant news regarding player injuries, coaching changes, or team performance could shift expectations and cause the market to move. Unexpected weather conditions or even public sentiment, as reflected in social media, might also play a role. As the game approaches, real-time updates and analysis from sports analysts will likely impact trading activity and price fluctuations in this market. Major upsets in other games involving these teams could also indirectly influence trading.