TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:34 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how many points will be scored by both teams combined in the final quarter of a football game. Bettors predict whether the total points will exceed certain thresholds, offering different levels of difficulty for correct predictions.
All markets resolve based solely on the total points scored by both teams during the 4th quarter of the designated football game, with overtime points excluded. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined score exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The thresholds increase progressively from 3.5 points to 24.5 points across the ten markets, allowing participants to choose their level of risk and potential return. All markets share the same core rule structure and secondary condition regarding the exclusion of overtime points.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective predictions of many individuals. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event draws nearer, the odds on Kalshi may converge with or diverge from sportsbook offerings. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds in accuracy, especially closer to the event’s start.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the 4th quarter total. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the event's outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast that reflects the collective intelligence of its participants.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final total points scored in the 4th quarter of the Ravens-Falcons game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data provider. The market will settle to 100 if the actual total points scored in the 4th quarter matches the winning contract’s range, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Ravens or the Falcons would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact scoring, could also move the market. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale might also play a role. Finally, as the game approaches, large trading volume driven by informed bettors could cause noticeable price fluctuations in this market.