TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on how decisively either team wins during the final quarter of play in an upcoming football game. Outcomes depend entirely on the point differential achieved in that specific timeframe, ignoring any points from earlier quarters or overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on the point difference by which either team wins during the 4th quarter of the designated BAL Ravens vs ATL Falcons game, with overtime excluded from consideration. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold: if the Atlanta Falcons win by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, or if they win by more than 1.5 points, the respective 'Yes' outcome triggers. Conversely, if the Baltimore Ravens win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, the corresponding market resolves positively for Baltimore. Only points scored during regulation time of the 4th quarter count toward these determinations; any scoring occurring in overtime has no impact on market resolution.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can sometimes differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines to balance action and ensure a profit, while this market’s price is driven purely by supply and demand. If a large number of traders believe the Ravens will cover a certain spread in the 4th quarter, the price will move in that direction. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, offering potential arbitrage opportunities for those following both.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 4th quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by the collective actions of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price of those contracts increases, while selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time assessment of the likely outcome based on the aggregated knowledge of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter spread of the Ravens-Falcons game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contract. It’s important to monitor the game’s progress as the 4th quarter unfolds, as the final score will determine the winning contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Ravens or the Falcons would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. In-game events, such as a series of turnovers or a dominant performance by one team, will also rapidly adjust the price as traders react to the unfolding action and reassess the likelihood of different 4th quarter spreads.