TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 9:19 PM EST
Kalshi
Determining the winner of the first quarter is the focus here. The market will resolve based on which team scores the most points in that specific quarter, with a tie as a possible outcome.
If Atlanta wins the 1st Quarter of the BAL Ravens vs ATL Falcons Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Baltimore wins the 1st Quarter of the BAL Ravens vs ATL Falcons Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If neither team wins the 1st Quarter of the BAL Ravens vs ATL Falcons Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on models and public perception, while this market allows individuals to trade on their own beliefs about the game’s outcome. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the odds in this market can adjust more rapidly than those offered by sportsbooks. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as the event approaches, though discrepancies can still occur based on differing levels of information and analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – in this case, either the Ravens or the Falcons winning the first quarter. The price of each contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on which team – the Ravens or the Falcons – has the higher score at the end of the first quarter of the game. The official game results will be used to determine the winning team and settle this market. Any potential overtime periods or unusual game circumstances will be considered based on standard football rules to ensure a fair and accurate resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact the odds in this market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries to either the Ravens or the Falcons would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Significant public betting patterns in sportsbooks, even if differing from the prediction market, could influence trader behavior. Finally, any pre-game analysis from respected football analysts predicting a clear advantage for one team could also move this market.