TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:07 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether the Atlanta Falcons will win the first half of their game against the Baltimore Ravens by more than 2.5 points. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on the result of the first half of the BAL Ravens vs ATL Falcons Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, as reported by the game’s official results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market resolves based on the first-half score and will be finalized no later than the resolution date of October 12, 2026.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between the BAL Ravens and ATL Falcons in the first half of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market specifies a different point threshold; if the winning team exceeds that threshold by more than the stated margin, the respective market resolves to 'Yes.' Only points scored during the first half count toward these resolutions. The outcomes range from narrow victories exceeding 2.5 points to decisive wins exceeding 13.5 points, covering both teams' potential dominance. All markets operate independently, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately without affecting the others. The governing body's official scoring and game results determine the resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any formal affiliation with the league or ownership of associated trademarks.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the opinions of informed traders. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. This can lead to prediction market odds being more accurate than sportsbook odds, particularly as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds are still a useful comparison point for understanding broader market sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the 1st half spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their contracts are correct and lose if they are not. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust its expectations as the game draws nearer. The current price represents the collective belief of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final 1st half spread of the Ravens-Falcons game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result will be sourced from established sports data providers and will be used to settle all outstanding contracts on Kalshi. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect spread will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Ravens or Falcons would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions might also shift trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi themselves can create momentum and drive price fluctuations, especially as we get closer to Oct 12, 2026 and more information becomes available.