TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between Bahia and Sao Paulo in the Brasileiro Serie A league. Traders can speculate on whether Bahia will win, Sao Paulo will win, or the game will end in a tie based on the full 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The resolution depends solely on the result after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The markets resolve based on the official result of the Bahia vs Sao Paulo Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for the Bahia market occurs if Bahia wins in regular time. Similarly, a 'Yes' for Sao Paulo occurs if Sao Paulo wins in regular time. The Tie market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends level after regular time. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. No outcomes consider extra time or penalty shootouts; only the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time determines resolution.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and the perceived public’s betting tendencies, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular outcome. It's common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information than sportsbooks, especially in the hours leading up to an event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and adjust to new developments. The market depth shows the available contracts at various price points, providing insight into potential trading opportunities.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bahia vs Sao Paulo match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will not. The exact payout amount will depend on the price of the contract at resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or weather conditions impacting the match could trigger significant movement. Unexpected announcements about team strategy or coaching decisions could also affect market sentiment. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, reflected in polls or expert analyses, could influence traders’ behavior. The closer we get to Oct 29, 2026, the more sensitive this market is likely to be to new information and breaking news related to the Bahia vs Sao Paulo match.