TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Bahia and Flamengo, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. It reflects how decisively one team outperforms the other within the standard match duration.
The event evaluates different winning margins in the Bahia vs Flamengo Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026. Resolution occurs based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Bahia winning by more than 2.5 goals, Bahia winning by more than 1.5 goals, Flamengo winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Flamengo winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market resolving to 'Yes' occurs only if the specified team achieves the corresponding goal-differential victory within regular time. The governing body’s official match result determines all resolutions, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal affiliation with the league or ownership of associated intellectual property.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations. If a significant difference emerges, it could indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome in the Bahia vs Flamengo match. Examining these differences can provide insights into market efficiency.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the volume of buy and sell orders at various price levels, indicates the strength of conviction behind different predictions. Traders aim to profit by accurately forecasting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Bahia vs Flamengo match, specifically the spread as determined by official sources. The platform will verify the final score against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the outcome is officially confirmed, and payouts will be processed accordingly. This ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 19, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a change in market expectations. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact on the Bahia vs Flamengo match is crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.