TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 5:56 PM EST
Kalshi
The outcome depends on the margin of victory for either team within the standard 90-minute regulation time plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
All markets for this event resolve based on the goal differential in the Bahamas vs US Virgin Island professional CONCACAF Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. The outcome is determined by the difference in goals scored between the two teams during the 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time added by the referee, with no consideration given to extra time, penalty shootouts, or other post-regulation proceedings. Each market specifies a different winning margin threshold for each team, ranging from Bahamas winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals to US Virgin Island winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, and resolves to Yes if the actual margin exceeds the specified threshold in favor of the relevant team. The secondary rules clarify that the platform is not officially affiliated with CONCACAF and that all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially early in the market's life cycle, as prediction markets can incorporate information and perspectives not fully captured by sportsbooks. Examining these differences can reveal insights into public perception and potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements based on their expectations for the Bahamas vs USVI game.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Bahamas vs USVI game, specifically the spread, will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official game results as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 5, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in coaching strategies, or significant shifts in team performance could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or other external factors that might affect the game’s dynamics could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants or shifts in public opinion could quickly move the market, creating opportunities for traders to react to new information.