TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 10:56 AM EST
Kalshi
The match features two national teams competing in an international tournament, aiming to score goals within the regular time frame of the game. The focus is on the teams' performance and their ability to find the back of the net during the standard playing period. The outcome depends solely on whether both teams manage to score at least one goal before the scheduled end of the match.
If Azerbaijan and Lithuania both score a goal in the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania UEFA Nations League match originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, aiming to profit regardless of the outcome. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, tends to more closely represent the true probabilities as perceived by those participating. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market evolves as new information and sentiment emerge, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the event’s likelihood.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of ‘Both Teams To Score’ in the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania match. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability. As more traders believe both teams will score, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the aggregate belief of all participants, constantly adjusting based on supply and demand for these contracts.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether both Azerbaijan and Lithuania score at least one goal during the match. Official match data will be used to determine if both teams found the back of the net. The final result will be based on the official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Azerbaijan or Lithuania would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or alterations to the game’s venue could also contribute to price movements. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding how this market evolves before it resolves.