TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.2b

24H VOL:

$203,036,808

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,857,846,526

408,774

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,373

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Azerbaijan vs. Lithuania
kalshi
predict
polymarket

What is the result of Azerbaijan vs. Lithuania?

Volume:
$1,770,774

Azerbaijan

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 11:04 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Azerbaijan

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$537,206
N/A
N/A
$252,771
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Azerbaijan

View
100%
59%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$280,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

AZE

View
99%
57%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$17,693
$82,986
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

LIT

View
1%
27%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$189
$40,050
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lithuania

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$296,106
N/A
N/A
$185,630
Settled
No
polymarket

Lithuania

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$194,426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Draw

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$755
$17,142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$268,777
N/A
N/A
$146,146
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Azerbaijan vs. Lithuania)

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$53,186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Azerbaijan and Lithuania, scheduled for October 4, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Azerbaijan winning is 99.0%, while Lithuania winning is estimated at 1.0%. This aggregate view combines data from Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket, and will resolve according to official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (UEFA). Keep an eye on the match itself on October 4, 2026, to see if Azerbaijan can secure the win as currently anticipated.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently define resolution based on the official result of the match within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with a defined fallback data source hierarchy.Primary resolution logic: Official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (UEFA in this case).

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' for Azerbaijan win if Azerbaijan has a higher score than Lithuania at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
  • The market resolves to 'Yes' for Lithuania win if Lithuania has a higher score than Azerbaijan at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
  • The market resolves to 'Yes' for a draw if Azerbaijan and Lithuania have the same score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
  • If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game is completed.
  • If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the Azerbaijan and Lithuania win markets resolve to 'No', and the draw market resolves to 'Yes'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Source Failure: If the official governing body doesn't publish statistics within 2 hours, Flashscore is used. If Flashscore is unavailable, Sofascore is used. If neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting is used. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours, the market resolves 50-50 (or to 'Draw' where applicable).
  • Score Revisions: Revisions to the officially declared final score after market resolution will not be accounted for.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the completion of the full 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with a maximum delay of 24 hours due to data source verification.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026 between Azerbaijan and Lithuania.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the result of the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 4, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for either Azerbaijan or Lithuania occurs if the respective team wins the match within regulation time. The 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends level after regulation. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The markets exclusively consider the result after regular time and stoppage minutes, with no account for extended play or penalty decisions.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026 between Azerbaijan and Lithuania.

Frequently asked questions

On PredictionHero, this dashboard aggregates forecasts from multiple prediction markets, specifically Polymarket and Kalshi, regarding the Azerbaijan vs. Lithuania match. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a strong likelihood of one outcome. The total volume traded across these markets is $1,770,774, with $1,616,171 changing hands in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive view of what traders believe will happen in the match, combining insights from different forecasting venues. We track the probabilities and volume to provide a clear picture of market sentiment.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and a desire to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. In contrast, prediction markets are driven by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This market's odds reflect real-time information and changing opinions, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the event’s probability than traditional betting venues. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges.