TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 1:50 PM EST
Kalshi
Four markets will indicate the general method of finish, regardless of which fighter achieves it. These include knockout, submission, decision, or a draw/no contest, providing a broader view of how the fight might conclude without specifying the winner.
These markets resolve based on the overall method of finish, irrespective of which fighter achieves it. If either competitor wins by KO/TKO/DQ, the first market resolves positively. Similarly, a win by Submission resolves the second market, and a win by Decision resolves the third. If the fight ends in a Draw or No Contest, the fourth market resolves positively. The focus is on the general outcome type rather than the specific winner.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and may adjust them to balance their risk, while this market is driven purely by traders buying and selling contracts based on their own beliefs. You may find that this market offers different probabilities for each outcome than those presented at sportsbooks, potentially identifying discrepancies or opportunities for informed traders. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders can buy 'yes' contracts, betting that a specific method of finish will occur in the Murzakanov vs. Reyes fight, or sell 'no' contracts, betting against it. The price of each contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective assessment of the fight’s potential outcomes, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, once the official result of the Murzakanov vs. Reyes fight is known. The method of finish declared by the official fight organizers will determine the winning contract. The outcome will be verified against credible public reporting from established sports news sources. Any disputes regarding the official result will be handled according to Kalshi’s standard procedures, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence the odds in this market. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks might also prompt adjustments in this market. Furthermore, analysis from MMA experts and updated fight previews could sway opinions. As the fight draws closer, even minor developments can have a substantial impact on the perceived probabilities of each method of finish, leading to price fluctuations.