Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi resolve based on the official match outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on April 16, 2026, with identical handling of postponements and cancellations across all three possible outcomes (AZ win, draw, Shakhtar win).
Primary resolution logic:
Official statistics from UEFA or governing body; credible reporting consensus if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Core resolution logic:
Market resolves based on the match result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only (no extra time or penalties).
Three mutually exclusive outcomes: AZ win, draw, or Shakhtar win. Exactly one market resolves YES.
If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed.
If the match is canceled with no make-up game, the draw market resolves YES and both win markets resolve NO.
Resolution uses official governing body statistics as primary source; credible reporting consensus applies if official statistics are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Cancellation: If the match is canceled entirely with no rescheduled make-up game, the draw market resolves YES while both AZ win and Shakhtar win markets resolve NO.
Postponement: If the match is postponed, all three markets remain open and unresolved until the match is actually played and completed.
Source Timing: If official governing body statistics are not published within 2 hours after match conclusion, resolution may use consensus of credible reporting sources instead.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official announcement of the final match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on April 16, 2026, or upon credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed beyond 2 hours post-match.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.