TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 1:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match in the Taca de Portugal, focusing on the result after the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It covers three possible outcomes: a win for either of the competing teams or a tie. The market reflects the immediate final score without considering any subsequent events such as extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the result of the AVS Futebol SAD vs Moreirense professional Taca de Portugal soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. There are three possible outcomes: AVS Futebol SAD wins, Moreirense wins, or the match ends in a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. The event exclusively considers the result after regular time and does not include extra time or penalty shootout results.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, incorporating a 'vig' or commission. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. As a result, prediction market prices can sometimes diverge from sportsbook odds, particularly when public sentiment differs from expert analysis. It's common to see discrepancies, especially in events where there's strong public bias or limited information available to sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. The closer we get to the event, the more volatile the price may become as new information emerges and opinions shift. This creates opportunities for informed traders to profit from perceived mispricings.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the AVS Futebol SAD vs Moreirense match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to contract holders. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result as it approaches the resolution date to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions could significantly shift expectations. Match previews from reputable sports analysts, weather forecasts impacting playing conditions, and even public sentiment expressed on social media can all contribute to price movements. Furthermore, large-volume trades on Kalshi itself can create short-term volatility. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade this market effectively.