TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 7:56 AM EST
Kalshi
A third soccer encounter pits two teams against each other, where the result after the normal playing time will determine the winning side, with no consideration for extended play or penalty shootouts.
The market resolves based on the result of the Avispa vs Gamba professional Japan J1 League soccer game scheduled for October 21, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if Avispa wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A separate market resolves to 'Yes' if Gamba wins under the same conditions. A third market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides, while this market’s odds are driven by traders buying and selling contracts based on their individual beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can take positions in this market, causing the price to move. This dynamic can lead to prediction markets being more accurate than traditional odds, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence the price, creating a dynamic environment where prices adjust based on supply and demand. The current volume indicates the level of interest and confidence in each possible result.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Avispa vs Gamba match, as reported by official sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner and fulfill the contracts accordingly. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will not.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Avispa or Gamba could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these teams, or broader league developments, might also impact the market. Even public opinion, as reflected in sports news and social media, can play a role, especially if it suggests a change in perceived probabilities. Major tactical announcements or pre-match analysis could also contribute to price movements.