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Above 45
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Vol.
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Resolves Dec 21, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday Rotten Tomatoes score?
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Description
This event tracks the critical reception of an upcoming Avengers film by monitoring its Rotten Tomatoes score on the Monday following its wide theatrical release. The market will resolve based on whether the film achieves a Tomatometer score above a specific threshold at a designated time.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score for Avengers: Doomsday assessed on the Monday after wide release at 10:00 AM ET. The score must exceed the specified strike value to resolve as Yes; a score equal to the threshold does not qualify. For example, a Tomatometer score of 75 would resolve "Above 75" as No, while "Above 70" would resolve as Yes. The Fresh and Certified Fresh designations are illustrative only and do not affect resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer subjective opinions based on trailers and pre-release buzz, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting real capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies or the influence of factors not fully captured in conventional analysis. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly as new information emerges, potentially diverging from initial expert predictions regarding the film’s critical reception.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different Rotten Tomatoes score outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices fluctuate, creating a dynamic representation of expectations. The market’s efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Dec 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Rotten Tomatoes score for Avengers: Doomsday is publicly available and verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual Rotten Tomatoes score achieved by the film. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will profit based on the difference between their purchase and sale prices, while those who predicted incorrectly may incur losses. The resolution will be based on the standard Rotten Tomatoes scoring methodology.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Early reviews from film critics, particularly those published by prominent outlets, will likely cause price fluctuations. Major marketing campaigns or unexpected controversies surrounding the film could also influence trader sentiment. Shifts in public excitement, measured through social media trends or ticket pre-sales, may also play a role. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the film’s potential critical reception could lead to movement in this market.
