TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Avalanche vs. Penguins
Description
On March 24, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, the Colorado Avalanche will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in an NHL game. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing outcomes on three dimensions: (1) moneyline winner, (2) total goals scored (Over/Under at multiple thresholds: 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and (3) margin of victory (spread betting on 1.5+ and 2.5+ goal differentials). All markets reference the same underlying event with consistent scoring methodology.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on margin-of-victory thresholds (1.5+ or 2.5+ goal wins by either team), while Polymarket settles on total goals scored (Over/Under various thresholds) and moneyline outcomes. The platforms measure fundamentally different aspects of the same game.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, you are betting on margin of victory (how much one team wins by). If you bet on Polymarket, you are betting on total combined goals or which team wins. A 3-1 Avalanche win resolves YES on Kalshi (over 1.5 margin) but may resolve differently on Polymarket depending on which specific market you chose (e.g., Over 4.5 total goals would be NO, but the moneyline would be Avalanche). Do not assume the same game outcome resolves the same way across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on margin of victory only. All four markets require either Pittsburgh or Colorado to win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. For example, 'If Pittsburgh wins by over 1.5 goals in the Colorado at Pittsburgh professional hockey game originally scheduled for Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This platform ignores total goals scored and moneyline outcomes.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers five separate markets measuring different outcomes: moneyline (Avalanche vs. Penguins winner), spread (-1.5 goals for Avalanche), and four Over/Under total-goals markets (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 combined goals). For example, 'This market will resolve to Over if the Avalanche and Penguins combine to score 5 or more goals in this game.' Polymarket does not directly measure margin of victory as a primary settlement criterion.
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