TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:15 PM EST
Kalshi
Auxerre faces Le Mans in a match where both teams will aim to exploit opponent weaknesses and capitalize on scoring opportunities. The result may depend on midfield control, finishing accuracy, and goalkeeping performance under pressure.
Resolution depends on the margin of victory in the Auxerre vs Le Mans professional Ligue 1 soccer game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A win by Auxerre by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals triggers a Yes outcome for the respective markets, as does a Le Mans win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. Extra time and penalty outcomes are not considered. Kalshi emphasizes no official league affiliation, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the odds here will adjust accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular outcome. It’s common to see this market offer odds that diverge from initial sportsbook offerings, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Auxerre vs Le Mans match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders’ willingness to pay or receive for a particular outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and reflect the collective probability assessment of all participants. As more traders engage, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability of the event occurring.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Auxerre vs Le Mans match as officially reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. It’s important to note that the official result, as determined by the data provider, is what governs the settlement of this market, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, updates on team performance in preceding matches or strategic adjustments announced by the coaches could also impact the odds. Major shifts in public opinion, reflected in betting patterns or expert analysis, can also contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.