TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Portland wins by more than 1.5 goals
- Kalshi
Portland wins by more than 1.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2026
Time left: 05d:00h:04m
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This market focuses on the margin of victory in a professional soccer match between Austin and Portland. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead, measured by specific goal differences, within the standard match duration of 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Austin or Portland wins the match, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Austin winning by more than 2.5 goals, Austin winning by more than 1.5 goals, Portland winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Portland winning by more than 2.5 goals. If the actual result matches any of these conditions after full regulation time (including stoppage time but not extra periods), the corresponding market resolves to Yes. All outcomes are determined solely by the official match result as recorded by the MLS governing body. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what’s readily available to traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on team statistics and expert opinions, this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, potentially leading to odds that diverge from those offered elsewhere. It’s common to see prediction markets react quickly to new information, such as injuries or coaching changes, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment of the likely outcome than traditional odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Austin vs Portland game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The current price of a contract indicates what it costs to take a position on a particular spread, and the market aggregates these individual assessments into an overall probability distribution.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Austin vs Portland game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by the governing body of the sport. The market will then determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by those contracts. All winning contracts will be settled at a value of 100, while losing contracts will be worth 0.
Several factors could significantly impact the Austin vs Portland spread market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either team would likely cause a shift in the odds. Unexpected coaching changes or significant changes in team strategy could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, major shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could lead to increased volume and price fluctuations. Even weather conditions on game day could play a role, especially if they are expected to favor one team's style of play over the other.