TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 10:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by a specific number of goals. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different margin-of-victory scenarios for the Austin vs Nashville professional MLS soccer match scheduled for October 10, 2026. All resolutions are based solely on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Austin winning by more than 2.5 goals, Austin winning by more than 1.5 goals, Nashville winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Nashville winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if the final score meets or exceeds its specified margin in favor of the relevant team. The structure allows participants to assess varying degrees of dominance by either team. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. It’s common to see the spread on Kalshi adjust as more information becomes available and more traders participate. However, as the event approaches, the odds on this market and those offered by sportsbooks tend to converge, as both attempt to accurately predict the final outcome of the Austin vs Nashville game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Austin vs Nashville spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. Essentially, the more people who believe a particular spread is likely, the higher the price of contracts representing that outcome will climb.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between the Austin and Nashville teams at the conclusion of their game. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and verified against credible public sources. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the Austin vs Nashville spread between now and Oct 11, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either team would likely cause significant movement in this market. Unexpected coaching changes, major shifts in team performance, or even significant weather forecasts impacting game conditions could also play a role. Public sentiment, as reflected in news reports and social media, can also influence trading activity and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market. Any substantial news related to either team is likely to be reflected in the market price.