TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 12:26 PM EST
Kalshi
Augsburg and Freiburg face off in a Bundesliga fixture where observers will watch for a conclusive win by either team. The settlement depends exclusively on the score margin at the end of regular play, disregarding any additional time beyond the 90 minutes plus stoppage.
The market resolves based on the goal difference in the Augsburg vs Freiburg Bundesliga match scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four separate conditions are evaluated: Augsburg winning by more than 2.5 goals, Augsburg winning by more than 1.5 goals, Freiburg winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Freiburg winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any of these conditions met during regulation time will resolve the market to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their beliefs about the outcome. Therefore, you may find discrepancies between the implied probabilities in this market and those offered by sportsbooks. These differences can arise from varying levels of information, analytical approaches, or simply differing opinions on the likely result of the Augsburg vs Freiburg match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price will move based on the collective actions of all participants, creating a dynamic and potentially informative signal about the likely spread in the Augsburg vs Freiburg match. The market's efficiency is driven by the incentives for traders to accurately assess and express their beliefs.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Augsburg vs Freiburg match, as determined by official match statistics, will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the final score difference between the two teams, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the ranges offered in this market. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi following the conclusion of the match.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Augsburg or Freiburg squads would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability or changes in coaching strategy could also cause price fluctuations. Monitoring these factors and analyzing their potential impact on the match outcome can help inform trading decisions in this market.