TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:38 AM EST
Kalshi
This event monitors the professional Bundesliga soccer match between Augsburg and Bayern Munich, evaluating the extent of victory for either side. The outcome hinges on whether the winning team secures a win exceeding a particular goal difference, illustrating potential mismatches or strong performances.
All markets resolve according to the goal differential in the Augsburg versus Bayern Munich professional Bundesliga match originally scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team wins by the required margin—Augsburg by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or Bayern Munich by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals—as outlined in each rule. The official result from the governing league determines resolution, and Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the league. All trademarks and brand names are property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as team news or injury reports – and as the event draws closer, you may see the odds on Kalshi converge with or diverge from sportsbook odds. It’s common to see prediction markets as more accurate forecasts, especially when compared to initial public opinion or polls regarding the outcome of this match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders for contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will be. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is unlikely, the contract price will be lower. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market continuously reflects the latest information and sentiment surrounding the Bayern Munich vs Augsburg match.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bayern Munich vs Augsburg match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner. All contracts will be settled based on this official result, and payouts will be distributed to contract holders accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Bayern Munich or Augsburg would likely cause price movement. Unexpected changes in team formations or managerial decisions could also impact the market. Furthermore, significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or breaking news, could lead to increased trading activity and altered odds. Even weather conditions on match day could play a role, especially if they are expected to favor one team over the other. Monitoring these signals is crucial for informed trading.