TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:32 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Augsburg will win its professional Bundesliga soccer game against Bayern Munich. Currently, Kalshi gives Augsburg a 42.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 35.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match originally scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result reported for the Bundesliga. Keep an eye on the starting lineups announced before the match on October 10, 2026, as they may provide insight into each team’s strategy and potential for success.
The event resolves based on the result of the Augsburg vs Bayern Munich professional Bundesliga soccer game scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Augsburg wins, the 'Augsburg' market resolves to Yes. If Bayern Munich wins, the 'Bayern Munich' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. The event exclusively considers the result after regular time and does not include extra time or penalty shootout outcomes. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see prediction market probabilities adjust more dynamically to new information and potentially outperform traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. However, sportsbook odds represent a readily available alternative for those interested in betting on the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the probability implied by the price rises accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence the price discovery process, making it a dynamic representation of collective belief about the Bayern Munich vs Augsburg match.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Bayern Munich vs Augsburg match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The market will determine which outcome – a Bayern Munich win, an Augsburg win, or a draw – is the correct result according to these official sources. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Bayern Munich or Augsburg would likely cause significant price movement. Unexpected changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also shift trader sentiment. Major upsets in other relevant matches leading up to the game, or even public comments from influential figures, might also contribute to volatility in this market.