TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 7:18 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory in the final quarter of a college football game between Auburn and Tennessee. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either team to resolve as a win.
The markets resolve based on the point differential by which either Auburn or Tennessee wins the game exclusively during the 4th quarter, excluding any overtime periods. For each market, if the specified team wins the 4th quarter by more than the stated point margin, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets consider only points scored in the 4th quarter of regulation play. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and information aggregation. Sportsbooks set their initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but are susceptible to biases. This market, like others on Kalshi, allows traders to incorporate new information and adjust their predictions, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of different outcomes as the game approaches. It’s common to see convergence between prediction markets and sportsbooks as event time nears.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. Buyers believe the spread is *more* likely than the market price suggests, while sellers believe it is *less* likely. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants. The more a particular spread is traded, the more reliable its price becomes as an indicator of potential game outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the fourth quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by the governing body of college football. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result. The platform will automatically process the outcome and distribute funds accordingly, ensuring a transparent and reliable resolution process.
Several factors could influence the Auburn vs Tennessee spread between now and game day. News regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant movement in this market. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is anticipated, could also impact expectations. Furthermore, any late-breaking news related to team strategy or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment. Even public polling data or expert analysis released closer to the game could influence trading activity and adjust the price of contracts on Kalshi.