TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 4:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various thresholds of points scored in the final quarter of a college football matchup, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of different scoring levels in the game's closing moments. The resolution depends solely on the combined points tallied by both teams during the fourth quarter, excluding any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both teams combined during the fourth quarter of the Auburn vs Ole Miss college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026, excluding overtime. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined score exceeds the stated threshold (e.g., 2.5, 5.5, up to 27.5 points), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Only points scored in the fourth quarter count, and Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts closer to game time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point totals for the 4th quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are essentially betting on their prediction of the final score, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on their collective actions. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence and agreement among traders regarding a particular outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the 4th quarter between Auburn and Ole Miss is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total points scored in the 4th quarter will be used to determine which contracts pay out, and the market will settle accordingly. Traders who correctly predicted the final point total will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of their trade.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Auburn or Ole Miss would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift trader sentiment. In-game events, such as early scoring drives or defensive stops, will dynamically affect the market as traders react to the unfolding action. Overall, any information that alters perceptions of the likely scoring potential in the 4th quarter could move this market.