TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 4:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two college football teams in the first quarter of their game, focusing specifically on the point differential between them. It examines various thresholds of victory margins to determine outcomes based on early-game dynamics.
The event consists of multiple markets, each with a specific point differential threshold that must be met or exceeded by either Auburn or Ole Miss in the first quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. If the specified team wins by more than the designated margin within the first quarter, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve based on the official result. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The event is unaffiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets and sportsbooks often arrive at similar probabilities, but they do so through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on statistical models and the insights of their oddsmakers, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders buying and selling contracts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available or as traders react to news and analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the first quarter of the Auburn vs Ole Miss game will be used to determine whether contracts settle at $100 or $0. If the actual spread matches the contract’s spread, those holding 'yes' contracts will receive $100 per contract, while 'no' contracts will be worth $0. Conversely, if the actual spread differs, the outcomes will be reversed. The resolution will be based on official game statistics.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Auburn or Ole Miss teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking analysis from sports commentators or unexpected shifts in public sentiment could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these signals can help traders assess the evolving probabilities and adjust their positions accordingly.