TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 4:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential, reflecting the competitive balance and performance in the match. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets, each evaluating different goal-differential thresholds for either team to win by. If Atletico wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Atletico wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Deportivo wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if Deportivo wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets are resolved based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from consideration. Additionally, Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Atletico vs Deportivo match as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will receive nothing. The market’s resolution is independent of any individual’s opinion and relies on objective data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Atletico or Deportivo could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could all impact trading activity. Unexpected news about the referee assigned to the match or any controversies surrounding the teams could also move the market. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of different spread outcomes has the potential to influence prices.