TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 7:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams, focusing solely on the result after the standard playing time. It determines whether either team wins within the allocated 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any additional periods such as extra time or penalty shootouts. The resolution depends strictly on the final score at the end of regulation time.
The event resolves based on the result of the Atletico Union Guimar vs AD Sporting Hortaleza professional Copa del Rey soccer match originally scheduled for October 4, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Atletico Union Guimar wins during regulation time, the 'Atletico Union Guimar' market resolves to Yes. If AD Sporting Hortaleza wins during regulation time, the 'AD Sporting Hortaleza' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. The outcome does not consider extra time or penalty shootout results.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to reflect public perception and incorporate a margin for profit, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular outcome. If you observe a significant difference between the odds on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, it could indicate an opportunity for value betting or a divergence in expert opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of each team winning. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe Atletico Union Guimar will win, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the aggregated intelligence of all participants, providing a real-time assessment of the event’s potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Atletico Union Guimar vs Sporting Hortaleza match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by the regulation time moneyline – meaning the team that wins the match within the standard 90 minutes of play, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports authority, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process for determining the winning outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, suspensions, or changes in coaching staff could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or changes in the playing field could also impact perceptions of each team's chances. Furthermore, updates on team form, recent performance, or tactical adjustments could all contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves as the match draws closer.