TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 11:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory for either side. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. It provides a way to assess which team dominates the game by a specific number of goals.
The event resolves based on the outcome of the professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer match between Atletico Morelia and Tlaxcala scheduled for October 3, 2026. The result is determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome scenarios are evaluated: Atletico Morelia winning by more than 2.5 goals, Atletico Morelia winning by more than 1.5 goals, Tlaxcala winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Tlaxcala winning by more than 2.5 goals. whichever condition is met first will determine the resolution. The event is unaffiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and the expertise of oddsmakers, while this market relies on the aggregated predictions of individuals. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly before significant events or when new information emerges. These differences can stem from varying levels of information access, differing interpretations of data, or simply the influence of public sentiment within the prediction market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Atletico Morelia vs Tlaxcala match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current price reflects the market's consensus expectation, and changes in price indicate shifts in that expectation as new information becomes available or as the event draws nearer.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Atletico Morelia vs Tlaxcala match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will determine which side of the spread ultimately prevailed, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the outcome. It's important to note that the official result is the sole determinant of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected coaching decisions could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, shifts in public sentiment, as reflected by media coverage or social media discussions, can also drive price movements. Game-day conditions, such as weather forecasts, and even pre-game analysis from sports commentators could all contribute to fluctuations in the market as traders adjust their positions based on new information.