TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 7:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event assesses the margin of victory in the same soccer match, focusing on whether either team secures a win by a specific goal differential within regulation time, again excluding extra time or penalties.
This event examines various winning margins for both teams in the specified match, determined solely within the 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Thresholds are set for Atletico Mineiro winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, and for Montevideo City winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The outcome is based exclusively on the goal difference at the end of regulation, with no account taken of extra time, penalty shootouts, or other post-regulation resolutions.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small group of experts, whereas this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. While sportsbooks may initially focus on team rankings and statistics, this market can quickly incorporate factors like injuries, weather, or even public sentiment, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. It's worth comparing both to inform your decisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the regulation time spread in the Atletico Mineiro vs Montevideo City match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades earn them rewards. The current price indicates what the market believes is the most likely spread.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final regulation time spread of the Atletico Mineiro vs Montevideo City match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports body. The market will determine which outcome—Atletico Mineiro covering the spread, Montevideo City covering the spread, or the spread being a push—is the correct one based on the official result. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout.
Several factors could significantly impact the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Atletico Mineiro or Montevideo City would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the availability of star players or changes in coaching staff could also shift the market. Major upsets in other related matches or significant public betting patterns may also contribute to price fluctuations leading up to Oct 15, 2026.