TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Atlas FC vs. CD Guadalajara
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Atlas FC vs CD Guadalajara?

Volume:
$3,523,968

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 11, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 11:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
61%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$764,788
N/A
N/A
$299,902
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (Atlas FC vs. CD Guadalajara)

View
100%
74%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Guadalajara

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,698,168
N/A
N/A
$863,896
Settled
No
polymarket

CD Guadalajara

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74,213
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Atlas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$896,575
N/A
N/A
$408,748
Settled
No
polymarket

Atlas FC

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$73,969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the Liga MX soccer match between Atlas FC and CD Guadalajara on October 10, 2026, specifically whether the game will end in a draw. Currently, the consensus probability of a draw is 100.0%, aggregating views from Polymarket and Kalshi. The resolution source for this market is https://ligamx.net/cancha/partidos. With a 0.1% probability, the second most likely outcome is that CD Guadalajara will win on October 10, 2026. Keep an eye on the match itself on October 10, 2026, as the final result will determine settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket offers separate markets for each outcome, while Kalshi markets resolve 'Yes' if any of the possible outcomes (Atlas win, Guadalajara win, or Draw) occur.Hero tip: Consider the implied probabilities across platforms carefully. Kalshi's markets are effectively an 'or' condition, potentially leading to higher probabilities for a 'Yes' resolution compared to Polymarket's individual outcome markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket has three separate markets: Atlas win, Draw, and Guadalajara win. Each resolves to 'Yes' if that specific outcome occurs. If the game is canceled, the win markets resolve to 'No', but the draw market resolves to 'Yes'.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi has three markets, but each resolves to 'Yes' if *either* Atlas wins, Guadalajara wins, *or* the game ends in a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The markets do not differentiate between outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for Saturday, October 10, 2026 between Atlas FC and CD Guadalajara.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the outcome of the Atlas vs Guadalajara professional Liga MX soccer game scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Atlas wins, the 'Atlas' market resolves to Yes. If Guadalajara wins, the 'Guadalajara' market resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away from the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price according to the rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin for themselves, while prediction markets allow participants to directly express their beliefs. This market benefits from the wisdom of the crowd, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds can be influenced by factors like public betting patterns and liability management, creating discrepancies with this market's implied probabilities.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing liquidity levels can cause temporary price discrepancies. While both platforms track the same underlying event—the Atlas vs. Guadalajara match—variations in market participation and information flow can lead to different implied probabilities. The volume of $3,523,968 suggests active trading, but imbalances between the platforms can still occur, reflecting unique perspectives on the likely outcome.